Time Series Analysis

Trumpeter Swans

The Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center is developing a partnership with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to provide data repository, data access, and online decision support tools related to the Rocky Mountain population of trumpeter swans. This emerging collaboration includes National Wildlife Refuge and Migratory Bird Programs of both Regions 1 and 6 of the Fish and Wildlife Service. In cooperation with them and with the Ecology Department of Montana State University, a biologist will be assigned to work on this project at our Center. An interagency meeting for initial design of the research was held in Spring of 2001, and progress in providing NRIN tools and support will be forthcoming as further arrangements are finalized.

The initial portion of the project will make historic neck collar data available via the web. Anyone observing a trumpeter swan will be able to access the database and learn the location history and other known facts about that particular swan. The next steps in the project will be to analyze the neck collar data for movement information, and then to provide online access to satellite telemetry data for birds being radioed by the Fish and Wildlife Service. Finally, all this information will be assembled via an online conceptual model related to movement and metapopulation theory. We hope to demonstrate feasibility of advanced, web-based decision support systems with this project for eventual adaptive management application to a wide-variety of wildlife and natural resource issues.


Time Series Analysis to Examine Trends in Segments of the Rocky Mountain Population of Trumpeter Swans

Preliminary Data and Results

As the project progresses, more information will be available regarding the survey, itself.  Please remember that the essence of the project is to gain a better understanding of trends in segments of the population by examining variability in the data.  Presented below are plots of the raw data.

Before we are finished we will have many people to thank, but at this time we wish to acknowledge the following, all from the USDI - Fish and Wildlife Service: Brad Bortner (Migratory Bird Coordinator, Region 1); John Cornely (Migratory Bird Coordinator, Region 6); Mark Otto (Office of Migratory Bird Management); Bob Trost (Pacific Flyway Representative); and Jackie Vann (Red Rock Lakes National Wildlife Refuge).

-- Dan Goodman, Rick Sojda, Chris Wright